'We Do Not Dabble' in Persuasion: Turning Point's $18 Million Says Otherwise

On Oct. 7, a Turning Point spokesperson explained the group's role in Arizona's governor's race this way: "We do not dabble much in persuasion." The job, the spokesperson told the Washington Sun, is making sure the group's own voters get information and turn out.

The state campaign finance filings tell a different story. Turning Point PAC has spent about $18.2 million on the race, according to the Arizona Daily Star's Oct. 18 review of those filings. Roughly $12.3 million of it went to ads against Gov. Katie Hobbs. Another $5.9 million went to ads for Andy Biggs.

Ads attacking the other candidate are not a turnout operation. They are persuasion, and in this race nobody else is spending more of it against Hobbs.

The Daily Star counts $12.8 million in total outside spending against Hobbs. Turning Point accounts for $12.3 million of that, or about 96 cents of every outside dollar spent attacking her.

Most of it arrived fast. The Washington Sun reported at least $14 million in September alone, including two separate $1.7 million ad buys in early October.

For scale: in the 2022 governor's race, Turning Point spent about $270,000. This cycle it is on track to spend more than 60 times that.

All outside groups backing Biggs have now spent more than $20 million, the Daily Star found. The Republican Governors Association has spent nothing.

In September, signs reading "Democrats for Biggs" and "Demócratas por Biggs" went up, aimed squarely at voters who are not Turning Point's own. ABC15 reported that the paid-for-by disclosure on the signs was about 2 inches tall, where state law calls for roughly 4.8. Complaints went to the Secretary of State and the Citizens Clean Elections Commission. The Biggs campaign declined to comment to ABC15.

Other signs went up in the neighborhoods of Latter-day Saint Republicans who oppose Biggs, including former Mesa Mayor John Giles, accusing them of "exploiting the church for political gain," the Deseret News reported on Oct. 20. Giles, a registered Republican until May, is backing Hobbs.

Spanish-language signs aimed at Democrats and church-themed signs aimed at Republicans are not a get-out-the-vote drive. They are messages to people who were not planning to vote for Biggs.

Arizona voters approved Proposition 211, the Voters' Right to Know Act, in 2022. It requires groups spending big on campaigns to disclose the original source of their money, not just the last committee it passed through.

The Turning Point PAC's own signs and website list one "Top donor." The name is spelled "William Scrogins" on the signs and "William Scroggins" on the PAC's website. The Inquirer has not been able to identify him or confirm how much he gave.

The PAC's website says it was "established to complement Turning Point Action," a 501(c)(4) nonprofit that does not have to name its donors. In July 2025, the Arizona Mirror reported a complaint alleging that Turning Point Action gave the PAC $500,000 for pro-Biggs media without disclosing the original donors under Prop 211. No outcome of that complaint has been made public.

As of July, according to the Arizona Agenda, no Turning Point group had filed a Prop 211 donor report, and no Prop 211 complaint filed since 2024 had led to a penalty.

A federal committee, Turning Point PAC Inc., reported to the FEC that it raised $13.6 million between January 2025 and the end of August 2026, including $3.6 million in contributions too small to itemize. Whether any of that money moved into the Arizona committee could not be confirmed from the filings available to us.

Hobbs has her own claim to check. In a recent text to supporters, she said Biggs and his allies "are outspending us 3-to-1."

The filings show the reverse. Through the latest reports, the Hobbs campaign had spent about $17.8 million to Biggs's $5.2 million, according to the Daily Star. Outside spending for Hobbs totals at least $31 million.

Most of that pro-Hobbs money runs through an unusual place: the Navajo County Democratic Committee, which has spent more than $33.2 million, more than $21 million of it on broadcast ads. Hobbs, Secretary of State Adrian Fontes and Attorney General Kris Mayes run their joint campaign through that rural county party rather than the state party. The Democratic Governors Association's Arizona arm sent it $16.9 million, raised largely from corporations and LLCs.

The Hobbs campaign did not answer the Daily Star's questions about the basis for its 3-to-1 claim.

Both sides say they are being outspent. Both sides are moving money through vehicles most voters will never see.

The Deseret News reported that Hobbs's double-digit lead has narrowed. The public polls we could confirm at the source still show a wide gap. HighGround's poll, released Oct. 13, has Hobbs at 50.5 percent and Biggs at 33.7. The RealClearPolling average from late July to early October has Hobbs up 11.4 points.

Several partisan polls listed by aggregators show the race closer, with Hobbs ahead by four to six points. We could not confirm those numbers with the pollsters.

Either way, a group that says it does not do persuasion is spending as if the race can still be moved.

For Turning Point PAC: Who is William Scrogins, or Scroggins, and how much did he give? How much of the PAC's money came from Turning Point Action? Has the PAC filed, or does it intend to file, a Prop 211 report naming the original sources of its money? How is $12.3 million in ads against Hobbs consistent with not doing persuasion?

For the Biggs campaign: Does Andy Biggs know who is funding the ads made on his behalf, and has he asked Turning Point to disclose it?

For the Hobbs campaign: What is the basis for the claim that Hobbs is being outspent 3-to-1?

Built from state and federal campaign finance filings and public reporting through Oct. 20, 2026, led by the Arizona Daily Star's review of state reports. Totals will change as new reports come in. The Hobbs campaign was asked to comment; Turning Point PAC and the Biggs campaign list no press contact. Responses will be added with a dated update. The Arizona Inquirer does not endorse candidates and runs no paid placement in editorial.